Understanding the second round of elections in Guatemala: Persecution, assassination plans, and Breakdown of the democratic process
Following the second round of elections in Guatemala, the Constitutional Court requested a controversial recount of the votes, which generated great expectations. To this end, the Constitutional Court enabled a vote recount mechanism not regulated by electoral law. The review process began with the request of the electoral boards to reopen and recount votes. The boards argued that opening the ballot boxes entailed a significant risk, since the electoral law stipulated that any violation of the bags containing the ballots could be grounds for nullifying the election. Despite the irregularities during the process, the review of the vote count in Guatemala after the first round of elections confirmed Sandra Torres and Bernardo Arévalo as the candidates in the second round of the presidential election.
The confirmation of the second round of voting in Guatemala’s elections and the increase in the participation of polling station inspectors representing the Semilla party marked a significant shift in the country’s political landscape. This increase in the party’s representation at the voting tables reflected a renewed commitment to citizen participation and a strengthening of the population’s trust in Semilla. Furthermore, the fact that citizen participation reached a level slightly higher than 45% of the electoral register on August 20 for the second round is an indicator of the interest and importance that the population attached to the electoral process, underlining the relevance of these historic elections for Guatemala.
The MP continues its investigation against the Semilla Movement
On July 14, the Public Prosecutor’s Office announced its decision to continue the investigation into the Semilla Movement. The investigation had been initiated for alleged crimes during the formation of the party in 2017-2018, reported in 2022. In less than a week after this announcement, the Special Prosecutor’s Office Against Impunity (FECI), in collaboration with prosecutor Rafael Curruchiche, who is leading the case against Semilla, carried out a raid on Thursday, July 20, at the headquarters of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE). During the raid, they seized files as part of their investigation. Later, on Friday, July 21, the Prosecutor’s Office raided the party’s headquarters and confiscated documents that allegedly contained irregularities related to the formation of the party. On that same date, the Prosecutor’s Office threatened to lift the immunity against deputies and members of Semilla so that they could be investigated. These actions were carried out after the Prosecutor’s Office, together with Judge Orellana, ordered the suspension of the party’s legal personality. However, the Constitutional Court issued an injunction in favor of the party, reversing the suspension of Semilla’s legal status and ordering that the electoral process leading up to the second round be respected.
The second round of elections
Despite multiple smear campaigns, clientelist favors carried out by Sandra Torres’ party (UNE), and the investigation launched by the Public Prosecutor’s Office to legally suspend the party, Semilla’s presidential duo emerged victorious in the second round with the support of 58% of the votes. The arrival of international observers, who supervised and guaranteed the integrity of the electoral process, played a crucial role in supporting the democratic process and contributed to strengthening the credibility of the elections. This external supervision served to mitigate concerns about possible irregularities and provided an additional level of transparency and objectivity. This support was essential in a political context where tensions and controversies about the electoral process were palpable from the beginning.
While Semilla’s supporters celebrated their victory in various parts of the country and on social media, the TSE’s Registry of Citizens provisionally suspended the legal status of the party. The Registry of Citizens justified the suspension by stating that they were complying with the order of Judge Orellana, a judge known for persecuting and intimidating journalists, judges, prosecutors and anti-corruption activists.
The tension after the second round of elections reached one of its most critical points when the Attorney General’s Office carried out a raid on the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) and confiscated the official records of the electoral results. On Saturday morning, the TSE broadcast the raid live, showing how the Attorney General’s Office and the police confronted the electoral magistrates who tried to protect and prevent them from taking the records with their own bodies. This was the fourth raid of the TSE by the Attorney General’s Office, where they seized sealed ballot boxes containing the votes from the election, including null votes, blank votes, unused ballots, the electoral register, the seals of the Voting Reception Boards, the crayons used by the voters and 125 thousand electoral records from the first round. The incident was pointed out by international organizations and activists as one of the most serious attacks against the democratic process that Guatemala has experienced in the last two decades.
Tensions continued to escalate when on August 24 the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights granted precautionary measures to the presidential candidate-elect of the Semilla party due to the existence of two plans to attempt against the life of the candidate. The first involved gang members who had a plan to assassinate the candidate. Four investigators from the Prosecutor’s Office against the Crime of Extortion warned Arévalo about this plan, indicating that his life was in danger. The second plan, called “Plan Colosio,” is related to the participation of state agents and private individuals in an attempted murder. Arévalo and his security team received worrying information about this five days before the second round of elections. The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) reports that, despite the fact that the State was aware of these threats, adequate measures were not taken to investigate and defuse the risks. Instead, they limited themselves to stating that they had not received any complaints, despite the fact that these events should be prosecuted ex officio.
What crimes is the Semilla Movement party accused of?
According to the official report of the Public Ministry, the Movimiento Semilla party faces accusations related to the falsification of signatures and alteration of electoral registers. The investigations were initiated following a complaint filed in July 2022, in which a citizen claimed to have been illegally added to the party. Subsequently, the MP claims to have determined that more than 5 thousand citizens had been illegally joined to the Movimiento Semilla through the falsification of documents, including the inclusion of at least 12 deceased people in their records. In addition, the Ministry argues that it discovered an alleged payment scheme of Q7 quetzales per signature collected, the source of financing of which is unknown.
Are these accusations valid?
According to experts, the actions of the Attorney General’s Office have been pointed out as an attack on the constitutional order, with the clear purpose of preventing Semilla from competing in the second round of elections. Additionally, these measures have been led by figures with a history of undermining the democratic order and weakening democratic institutions in recent years. These figures are known for criminally persecuting and coercing prosecutors, magistrates, activists and judges through legal and non-legal means. In addition, they are linked to corruption cases and guarantee impunity to actors involved in organized crime and corruption. This raises significant doubts about the validity of the accusations. The international community, including the Organization of American States (OAS), has rejected these accusations, describing the situation in Guatemala as “political persecution similar to that carried out in authoritarian regimes.” In short, the accusations against Semilla appear to be a clear example of anti-democratic political persecution without solid foundations and/or legitimacy.
What would happen if the prosecution were successful in its charges against the party?
If the charges brought by the Prosecutor’s Office were successful, the implications would be significant. Firstly, the Movimiento Semilla party would lose its legal personality, which would have a profound impact on its existence and participation in political life. In addition, this could open the door to possible criminal prosecution of party members. What does it really mean for a party to lose its legal personality and what would be the long-term consequences?