A young Peronist once expressed in a casual conversation among friends: “I tell you this so you don’t complain… When you think Peronism is down for the count, completely defeated, you’ll see it unify in all its parts and come back stronger.” Real, chilling, and instructive. While the entire Argentine political spectrum and all Argentines in general are still trying to recover from the shock of the recent election results, the anecdote shared above takes on a particular meaning and significance at this moment of precise uncertainty… Did we not see it coming?
Dear readers, it is necessary to warn you before continuing: In these lines, you will not find elaborate analyses or projections of possible outcomes for the runoff election that will take place in Argentina on November 19. This is simply because any attempt at conclusion is resisted and outright rejected by the complexity of Argentine politics, always tending toward entropy or rather, self-cannibalization.
To say that the management of the fourth Kirchnerist government was bad, scandalous, and an archetype of all that is unacceptable in political terms is an understatement. With a monthly inflation rate in double digits, already accumulating 140% year-on-year, a poverty level reaching 41% of the population, the free dollar breaking the 1,000 Argentine pesos barrier, and the entire collection of corruption episodes seen in the past 4 years, the results obtained by this space in the general elections almost read as a decoration from a sector of the electorate to its own executioners. Even more, the fact that the author and executor of this terrible economic situation is, paradoxically, the current Minister of Economy and presidential candidate at the same time, breaks with the threads of logic and even invites us to test the very Laws of Newton.
But to avoid getting into metaphors, the issue is much simpler than it appears: The mere idea that power might slip from their hands, for the sake of power itself and not for the vocation to administer the country, activated all the defensive shields of Peronism. In this line, all its allies lined up like dominoes under the strategy proposed by Massa, for whom personal ambition has no distinction from politics. In short, the old machinery, now more oiled than ever, is at their full disposal.
That’s on the Peronist side. On the opposing side, the readings are more diffuse and troubling. With Patricia Bullrich out of the presidential race, representing the liberal and tougher wing of the Juntos por el Cambio coalition, the most urgent questions arise: What position will she take in the runoff? How much balancing effort does she need to make to contain her electorate and the highly fragmented pieces of her political force? Is it possible to outline a ceasefire agreement with Milei in the effort to once and for all unseat Kirchnerism? Regardless, Patricia is a woman who never disappoints, either politically or personally: As the leader of her space, her premise has always been to support the common citizen and make politics an instrument of change rather than a whip to retain power. Order, strength, and courage were the words that marked her campaign and best define her in all respects, so we can expect that her final decision will renew the air in the Juntos space and crystallize the hope of Argentines weary of 20 years of Kirchnerist model.
As for Javier Milei, whose post-PASO campaign (he was the most voted candidate, with 30%) thrived on installing the idea of an imminent victory in the General Elections, the official results have cast doubt on his effective ability to access power. The time La Libertad Avanza had to recalculate its next move was very limited: Naturally pivoting towards seeking the orphaned votes of Juntos por el Cambio and, more specifically, Patricia Bullrich’s votes, with whom he shares the idea of an Argentina governed by the values of Liberty and republicanism. Nonetheless, this is not Milei’s only challenge; he also needs to bring order to his own house (and his own representatives) after several discursive missteps ranging from a proposal for a potential organ market to a project to promote paper abortion. The natural tendency toward verbosity and aggression of the LLA composition, which also includes its inorganic militancy, cannot be overlooked.
Meanwhile, envisioning Argentina’s future, and more immediately in the next four years, is a blunt exercise. At this same moment, while these lines are being written, Patricia Bullrich, along with her running mate Luis Petri, announced her irrevocable decision to always bet on the possibility of change against the perpetuation of the Kirchnerist model. With a demeanor showing some wear but more firmness, it is she, along with Mauricio Macri, who assume the weight and inevitable responsibility of fighting this battle once more: Neutrality at these times only serves to feed the populist monster, and the coin is already in the air.